Given the 97% to 99% probability that the El Niño climate phenomenon will persist through early 2027, seven Embrapa units — Temperate Climate (RS), Forestry (PR), Southern Livestock (RS), Soybean (PR), Swine & Poultry (SC), Wheat (RS), and Grapes and Wine (RS) — have prepared a technical note with recommendations to reduce risks to crop and livestock in the Brazilian Southern Region. The material provides guidance to farmers on preventive measures to minimize losses caused by heavy rains, an increase in the incidence of crop diseases, and other impacts expected for different production systems.

This scenario is highlighted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which also estimates a 63% probability that the phenomenon will reach very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. For the Southern region, the forecast calls for increased rainfall, more cloud cover, and above-average temperatures during the winter — conditions that could affect various agricultural systems.

The Embrapa research centers responsible for the technical note are part of the Collaborative Platform for Mitigating Adverse Climate Effects on Agriculture and Livestock in Southern Brazil. More than just warning of the risks, the document aims to provide technical information that will enable advance planning of field activities, thereby reducing losses and preventing alarmist interpretations of the effects of El Niño.

According to researcher Gilberto Cunha, an agrometeorologist at Embrapa Wheat, the knowledge gathered over the past few decades enables farmers, technicians, and institutions to take preventive action. The document emphasizes that the inherent uncertainty of weather phenomena should not be a reason for inaction, but rather a reason to strengthen risk management based on scientific evidence and constant monitoring. “Today we know much more about El Niño than we did in the 1980s. The challenge isn’t predicting the phenomenon, but turning that knowledge into decisions in the field”, he adds.

He also points out that the impacts of El Niño are not inevitable. “The knowledge we’ve gained from past events allows us to reduce risks and, in some cases, even take advantage of favorable environmental conditions for certain crops”, Cunha notes.

The strategy proposed by Embrapa combines prevention, mitigation, and risk transfer measures. In addition to good management practices, the technical note emphasizes the importance of agricultural insurance and of making decisions based on official weather forecasts.

Planning is the Main Tool

General recommendations include complying with the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (ZARC) regulations, monitoring forecasts issued by official agencies, carefully planning investments, and participating in rural insurance programs. At the same time, it provides specific guidelines for each production chain, recognizing that the impacts of El Niño vary depending on the characteristics of each crop.

The publication also recommends that farmers adjust their investments and yield expectations to the conditions expected during El Niño years, avoiding decisions based on scenarios of exceptional productivity and tailoring the use of inputs to the crops’ actual potential.

For winter grains, such as wheat, barley, and oats, the guidelines focus on disease prevention, fertilizer management, and harvest planning. As for soybeans, corn, and irrigated rice, the document introduces strategies to reduce losses caused by excessive rainfall, improve drainage in these areas, protect the soil from erosion, and step up phytosanitary monitoring.

In fruit growing, the guidelines cover crops such as grapevines, apple trees, peach trees, olive trees, and pecan trees, with measures focused on orchard drainage, plant health management, soil conservation, and agricultural operations planning. The technical note also devotes specific chapters to forestry, horticulture, pastures, and cover crops, reaffirming specific strategies to adapt to projected climate conditions.

According to researcher Alex Mayer from Embrapa Temperate Agriculture, fruit growing is among the agricultural activities most affected by the impacts associated with El Niño, especially due to excessive rainfall and extreme weather events. “Fruit production is very sensitive. In addition to soil flooding, which can compromise the root system and lead to plant death, losses can also result from strong winds, hail, and erosion, damaging orchards, farming structures, and productivity itself”, he explains.

In addition to technical recommendations for rural properties, the document proposes a broader approach to environmental planning, encouraging actions at the micro-watershed level, soil conservation, strengthening of natural infrastructure, and the adoption of more resilient production systems, such as Agroforestry Systems (AFSs) and Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forestry Systems (ICLFS).

Technology Transfer and Communication

Another key point in the technical note is the importance of technology transfer and communication with farmers. The Collaborative Platform provides for the ongoing training of technical assistance professionals and the production of easily accessible digital content, apps, and materials to broaden the dissemination of the recommendations.

According to José Reinaldo Moraes, a researcher at Embrapa Temperate Agriculture, “the important message is that, although El Niño requires attention, it is a predictable event and is not synonymous with guaranteed problems, but rather with a shift in risk patterns. Their impacts can be reduced through advance planning, the adoption of good agricultural practices, and access to reliable technical information. These measures are essential for increasing the resilience of production systems in the face of projected climate events”, he notes. 

Cunha states: “We can no longer passively accept the inability to deal with adverse impacts”. In the researcher’s opinion, the lessons learned from past climate events cannot be ignored. On the contrary, they should help us cope with adversity and remain alert and vigilant for any obstacles that may arise during the period of heightened El Niño activity.